Henrietta, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

034
FXUS61 KBUF 071759
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
159 PM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat this week. Heat indices could reach the mid 90s
by the end of next week.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to return mid-
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat this week. Heat indices could reach
the mid 90s by the end of next week.

An upper level ridge will build into the eastern Great Lakes region
for the first part of the week. Surface high pressure will move from
northern Ontario across the Northeast, before settling off the Mid-
Atlantic coast by Tuesday. Mid-level flow will veer through Tuesday
and warm air will move into the region. The upper level ridge axis
will move across the region Tuesday and warm air advection will
strengthen with mostly sunny skies. Day to day warming is expected
through Tuesday, with highs in the mid to upper 80s, potentially
hitting the low 90s across the lake plains and valleys in the Finger
Lakes region. Lower maximum temperatures are expected near the
lakeshores.

As the ridge breaks down across the region the second half of the
work week, increasing clouds and increasing chances for showers and
thunderstorms will bring maximum temperatures slightly down
Wednesday. Warm and moist conditions are expected to linger into
Thursday and Friday, however confidence is lower due to an unsettled
period. Heat headlines are possible for some locations across the
area late in the week.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to
return mid-week.

An upper level ridge axis is expected to move across the forecast
area Tuesday. Ahead of an approaching shortwave trough, warm and
moist area will spread across the region from late Tuesday through
Wednesday morning, increasing the potential for scattered showers
and thunderstorms. A mid-level ridge is expected to move into the
region towards the end of the week, however the warm and moist
airmass will reside across the region. At this time, mean
0-500mb shear is weak through Thursday night. The primary
impact from any heavy showers or thunderstorms will be heavy
rain, as PWAT values are expected to exceed 1.5", which is above
the 90th percentile for this time of year. Drier air is
expected to move into the region for the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A mix of VFR and MVFR flight conditions reside across the eastern
Great Lakes region this afternoon. Lingering moisture from an upper
level trough over the Northeast will support low clouds with showers
across the eastern Lake Ontario region today. Moisture will pull
away while high pressure builds into the region tonight. Low clouds
will dissipate with patchy fog developing across the North Country
and valleys across the Southern Tier. Local IFR or below conditions
are possible at KART and KJHW tonight.

VFR conditions are expected across the region Monday.

Outlook...

Tonight...Mainly VFR.

Monday and Tuesday...VFR.

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure building into the lower Great Lakes will maintain
quiet conditions today through early next week, with generally light
to modest winds and minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...HSK